policy toward Iran is high on the agenda for all three parties, whether by skillfully working redundancies into a host of new sanctions on Iran, tying them to non-nuclear Iranian activity that would be hard to undo in the context of nuclear negotiations, or by designating the Houthis in Yemen as a terrorist organization. First, there is the simple fact that Trump and Pompeo remain in office and fully empowered for another 50-odd days.
Why the rush? There are at least three possible explanations. Thus, open Saudi-Israeli ties could unlock relations for Israel with many other Arab or Muslim-majority states and would put to rest forever the idea that such ties could only come about through a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.Īnd yet, the meeting took place (again, assuming it did) before a Biden administration could take any credit for it, or add any sweeteners. In today’s beleaguered Middle East, Saudi Arabia is perhaps the most politically and economically influential Arab state. The Saudi monarchy’s role as “Guardian of the Two Holy Mosques” in Mecca and Medina make the kingdom an undisputed heavyweight in the Muslim world. While the openings to Israel by the UAE and Bahrain (and nominally, Sudan) were meaningful and dramatic, Saudi Arabia has been the big prize in recent Arab-Israeli rapprochement.
There is no question that diplomatic recognition of Israel would be such a move.Ī Saudi-Israeli opening, if and when it comes, would indeed be historic. This suggests that Saudi Arabia has strong incentive for a dramatic move that will change the way the kingdom is perceived in Washington. support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen.” The Saudis have undoubtedly also noted the centrality of democracy and values in Biden’s foreign policy statements, and his criticism of Trump for coddling dictators. As a candidate, Biden called Saudi Arabia a pariah state, and said he would “end U.S. Biden will likely end the blanket protection Trump gave them from a Congress concerned over human rights abuses and keen to halt arms sales that enabled the Saudi war in Yemen. For the Saudis in particular, the attitude from Washington may change dramatically on January 20th. Indeed, both countries may feel they need something to “give” the Biden team, which promises to end the blank check of the Trump years. Give it some time and distance from the Trump era, one might think, and Saudi Arabia and Israel could offer Biden a big Middle Eastern success to eclipse the normalization pacts of 2020, in return for any number of policy rewards. One might have thought that both Riyadh and Jerusalem would opt to minimize their intimate relationship with the lame-duck Trump and Pompeo, and instead present their warming relationship as a welcome opportunity for the incoming Biden and secretary of state nominee Antony Blinken. Why would the Saudi and Israeli leaders take such a significant public step now (if indeed they did)? The prospect of the new Joe Biden administration looms large for both parties. For MBS, on the other hand, there is a delicate dance to play between his own apparent desire for closer ties with Israel and the constraints both of public opinion in Saudi Arabia and of the other views within the ruling family, including his father, the king.Ī second puzzle is timing. Netanyahu is eyeing another round of national elections - the fourth in two years. The ambiguity over the facts is the first puzzling aspect of these reports: Did a meeting actually take place? Did something go awry? Or did a meeting take place, but each side took the public stance that best met its political needs? Certainly, such a meeting is yet another boon to Netanyahu, domestically, following the treaties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, and the initiation of normalization with Sudan.
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